If President Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imported goods, the question is not what's on the list, it's what's not on the list? This could be a big presidential bluff or the beginning of a bad divorce with global implications.

The market is split on the timing and size of tariffs on China, the EU, Mexico, Canada, and now Russia—but traders, analysts and farmers are preparing in the same way they did in 2018.

US President Donald Trump has said he is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese-made goods as soon as 1 February. Trump said discussions with his administration were "based on the fact that they're sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada".